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Tuesday, Jan 13, 2004

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CMIE raises GDP forecast to 8.2 pc

Our Bureau

Mumbai , Jan. 12

THE Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) has raised its GDP growth forecast for financial year 2003-04 to 8.2 per cent from an earlier expected 7.4 per cent and said there is a possibility it could be even higher.

A CMIE release said here that higher-than-expected rise in the services sector growth in the first half of the fiscal year warranted the revision. The monitor has also raised its estimate of industrial growth to 6.1 per cent. The forecast for agriculture growth remains unchanged at 10.7 per cent.

According to CMIE, the impact of the recovery in agriculture production would be seen in the second half of the year. In the first half, it grew only by 4.1 per cent. It said prospects of rabi crop appear bright as sowing at the end of December was 11 per cent higher than the previous year. Water storage in major reservoirs was 24 per cent higher.

CMIE said industrial production would improve in the second half as steel and automobiles would continue to perform well. The fertilisers, chemicals and textiles sectors would also improve in the latter part of the year.

Among services, trade, hotels, transport and communications would do well. The broad sector would grow at 10.5 per cent during the year, CMIE has predicted based on data available till early January.

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