The Hindu Business Line : Indo-Pak game continues

ONCE more, the ante has been upped regarding efforts to normalise relations between India and Pakistan, the hope of course being that, this time, the effort will succeed.

There is nothing unrealistic about such a hope if for no other reason than the fact that the "quarrel" has been going on for such a long time — for 55 long years — that people have got tired of it.

Indeed, the full utility of the issue now lies with the politicians of both the countries (in Pakistan with the generals mainly) who, it is widely suspected, have nurtured it in the past so as to be able to use it to serve their own narrow political interests, both at home and abroad.

The point will, of course, have to be made that, in this game, Islamabad has played the active role because it is abundantly clear that, to its leaders (civilian as well as military), the Kashmir issue has always been an important instrument in their efforts to bolster their own positions at home as well as extract the maximum mileage for their country in the international arena, especially during the Cold War days.

Indeed, for the Pakistan military establishment, keeping the Kashmir issue alive has been an integral part of its continuing campaign to usurp the number one position in the domestic political scene, the argument being that the Kashmir issue threatens Pakistan's integrity and security and, therefore, the military must get top priority if it is to protect effectively the nation's interests.

"Top priority" here means absolute power, which explains why Pakistani generals have occupied the seat of power in Pakistan except for three short interregnums during which the late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, his daughter Benazir, and Nawaz Sharif ruled the roost in Islamabad.

This is the Pakistani scene. But what about India? At the very outset, the point needs to be made that, unlike with the Pakistani leaders, there is no abiding interest on the part of Indian politicians (and here the military does not figure at all) to keep the Kashmir issue alive.

On the other hand, there is a very strong desire to resume normal trade ties which, it is clear, will help immensely Indian businessmen, on the one hand, and, on the other, provide average Pakistanis with a wider choice of products at competitive prices because of the accessibility to Indian consumer and other products.

Since Pakistan's is a much smaller economy, the desire to open up the borders to Indian products will necessarily be much weaker, which, in fact, has been the case.

This natural opposition to increased trade contacts has been greatly strengthened by the overbearing need of the Pakistani power elite to keep the "quarrel" with India going — for reasons that have been outlined above.

So how should one see the latest flurry of mutual initiatives to normalise relations between the two countries, which is taking place under the auspices of the Saarc summit meeting in Islamabad?

Briefly, Mr Vajpayee is piling the pressure on Gen Musharraf at this juncture mainly to score a point with the Indian public about his noble intentions to restore normality in ties with Pakistan in the run-up to the next Lok Sabha polls.

On his part, Gen Musharraf is also playing to the gallery (his supporters in the West), giving the impression that he too is deeply interested in finding a solution to the problem but knowing full well that he cannot go beyond a point — laid down by the "hardliners" among the military and the Islamic fundamentalists.

So the "game" continues, and all the while the Kashmir wound festers between the two countries, harming the minds of future generations which alone can restore some sanity in the relations between Islamabad and New Delhi.

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