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Tuesday, Dec 09, 2003

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile Movement

K. Premkumar

THE market witnessed volatile movement during Monday's trading. Neither the bulls nor the bears had control over the day's trading activity. The market sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading.

Nifty Futures recommendation: The market opened around 3 points lower than the previous day's close and then moved up by 13 points. But the bulls were not able to sustain and wilted under bear pressure during the day. The December contract moved within a band of 23 points. It closed with a gain of 9 points with respect to Friday's close.

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Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to threaten the downtrend in the December contract. However, the bullish level is still placed far away and is unlikely to be triggered during Tuesday's trading activity.

Stock Futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in this segment remained unchanged. Infosys and Ranbaxy interchanged their positions. The exit levels for the short position in Tata Power and Wipro are placed at 271.05 and 1548.05, respectively.

There are no uptrend counters in the list. All the downtrend counters in the list may be under threat on Tuesday. Bulls are likely to have opportunities in almost six counters in the list. Buying in Maruti is most likely the best bet for Tuesday's trading. Its buy level is placed nearer to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Tuesday may reverse the prevailing downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list was changed. NIIT gained entry with the exit of Polaris. The ranking of the list too changed. Maruti occupied sixth position followed by Digital and SAIL. The exit level for NIIT is placed at 227.60.

Except Reliance Industries, all the downtrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. On the other hand, Infosys is likely to be exited in case of bear pressure on Tuesday. Maruti and Tata Steel are likely to have opportunities on the buy side. Infosys is the lone opportunity on the bearish side. Among the above, the best bet is likely to be the selling in Infosys. This counter is in the uptrend. Its exit and bearish trigger levels are placed near its closing price. Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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