The Hindu Business Line : Drawing the electoral battle-lines

The Assembly elections in the Hindi belt are seen as crucial in the run-up to the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, especially for the principal contenders — the BJP and the Congress (I). India, it seems, has slipped into electoral politics which rules out fiscal tightening and reforms in the two years ending March 2005.

LONG before the polls are due, battlelines are being drawn and strategies for wooing voters crafted by the major political parties in power at the Centre and the States where elections have to be held before December 2003.

The State elections in the Hindi belt are being viewed as crucial in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls in October 2004 and, therefore, the stakes are higher for the two principal contenders — the BJP and the Congress (I).

For the BJP, the first challenge is to unseat the Congress (I) in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. The State elections have been described as a dress rehearsal for the 2004 General Elections. The challenges for the Congress (I) are more formidable. Not only does it have to retain the States where it wields power — offsetting the anti-incumbency factor — but also galvanise itself to recapture the power it lost to the BJP at the national level.

It is now recognised that the party will have to forge a pre-poll alliance of secular forces if it is to succeed in capturing power at the Centre. India, it would seem, has already slipped into electoral politics which will rule out fiscal tightening and reforms in the two years ending March 2005, unless the General Elections are advanced by several months.

In any case, the new government at the Centre will be called upon to reappraise the Tenth Plan (2002-07) which is set to fall short of its ambitious 8 per cent growth target. Populism and "welfarism" will be the stuff of economic policies from now on, more blatantly at the State level.

The BJP claims among its achievements the "roll-back" of Budget levies proposed by its own Finance Minister. Competitive populism is being embraced even by reform-minded Chief Ministers, such as Mr Chandrababu Naidu.

The BJP has a head start in the preparation for the elections. Its "Mission 2004" aims at winning not less than 300 seats in the next Lok Sabha to give itself not only an absolute majority but also a commanding presence.

The BJP leadership has accused the Congress Governments of having failed on all fronts, especially development and social justice. The party is hoping to capitalise on the image of the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and his Government's "achievements".

Having lost its hold on the Centre in successive elections, and reduced to the status of the main Opposition party in the Lok Sabha, the Congress (I) is ruling in some 14 States. Under the leadership of Mrs Sonia Gandhi, the party did succeed in several State battles, most recently in Himachal Pradesh. But the party is yet to set its house in order and re-emerge as a dynamic force.

With little promise of it being able to take the BJP head-on, the Congress (I) is trying to form alliances with secular parties at the national level and, in some cases, State level.

For the first time, the Congress (I) President, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, has clearly spelt her party's stand on pre-poll alliances. This followed meetings with the Samajwadi Party leader, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal leader, Mr Ajit Singh.

The Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Lal Krishna Advani, says the BJP will go to the people, both during the State and General Elections, with its record of "development" and performance of the Vajpayee Government, as also the "non-performance" of Governments in Congress-ruled States.

Mr Advani claims that the NDA Government has accomplished in five years what the Congress could not do in 50. The NDA Government's policies have been assailed as much by the Sangh Parivar as the opposition parties. But the Prime Minister has now a word of assurance from the RSS that all its affiliates will work for the success of the BJP in the elections. The Deputy Prime Minister, who has been the strongest defender of Hindutva, however, does not want outfits, such as the VHP, to indulge in "trishul" distribution as it affected the BJP's image.

The BJP-led Government has been trying in to facilitate the Ram Mandir construction. That the election fever is spreading fast across the nation is demonstrated by the sudden shift on the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, Mr Chandrababu Naidu's part. Known for his reforms, Mr Naidu surprised many with his welfare announcements — likely to entail an additional expenditure of more than Rs 3,000 crore — at the Telugu Desam Mahanadu in Tirupati (May 27-29).

Mr Chandrababu Naidu says that he does not intend to call for early elections, yet he announced — even before the Mahanadu — koti varaalu (one crore boons) for 10 million people in the drought-affected areas. Mr Chandrababu Naidu described it as balancing welfare and development, and denied that it was an election gimmick.

Bicycles for schoolgirls and "mangala sutrams" for young women were also promised. Mr Chandrababu Naidu has further announced that there will be no power tariff revision next year, thus, sidelining the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the tariff-determining authority. His actions are widely seen as a panicky reaction to the headway that the leader of the Congress (I) in Andhra Pradesh, Dr Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, is making on his 1400-km "padayatra".

Ridiculing Dr Rajasekhara Reddy's padayatra, Mr Chandrababu Naidu organised a 12-day "Janachaitanya Yatra" for his partymen in all the Assembly constituencies from June 9 to spread awareness of his Government's development activities.

Mr Chandrababu Naidu has reaffirmed his support to any BJP-led Government at the Centre. Rejecting the Congress (I) demand for a special session of the Assembly to vote on the additional expenditure, the TDP Government has begun to re-work the appropriations in the Budget, and make use of additional drought relief and other assistance expected from the Centre as well as disbursements from external loans to implement the welfare programmes.

The State's estimated debt at the end of March 2004 is Rs 57,000 crore, or 31.33 per cent of the gross state domestic product (GSDP), while Government guarantees run into Rs15,000 crore to add another 8.61 per cent of GSDP to the liabilities.

(The author, a former Chief Editor of PTI, is a freelance writer.)

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