The Hindu Business Line : Grains output likely to fall by 30 mt

WHAT will deficient rainfall in both the monsoon as well as post-monsoon season add up to in terms of the country's overall agriculture production for 2002-03?

The Agriculture Ministry has, in its `first advance estimate' released in November, assessed this year's kharif foodgrains output to decline to 90.64 million tonnes (m.t), from the previous year's all-time-high of 111.51 m.t.

The 21 m.t drop is mainly on account of a 12.5 m.t fall in kharif rice production (from 79.36 m.t to 66.86 m.t), with output of coarse cereals and pulses correspondingly declining from 27.06 m.t to 19.54 m.t and from 5.09 m.t to 4.24 m.t, respectively. Besides, output of kharif oilseeds is expected to plummet from 13.20 m.t to 9.89 m.t, with cotton production, too, slated to fall from 11.69 million bales to 9.08 million bales.

Considering that rainfall precipitation has been weak in the post-monsoon phase as well, there is every likelihood of this year's kharif decline extending to the rabi season. Going by the latest trends, it appears that wheat production will fall below the 65 m.t in 2002-03, from last year's 71.47 m.t.

Poor rains in Rajasthan, M.P, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra are also likely to bring down the output of rabi pulses and coarse cereals by at least two m.t and one m.t, respectively. Foodgrain production in 2002-03 may end up at 180-181 m.t — a 30-m.t drop over the 211.32 m.t level of last year. Oilseeds output is likely to be around 15-16 m.t.

In all, the agriculture sector is headed for a negative growth of roughly 10 per cent during 2002-03, which will be the lowest since the 13.4-per cent decline registered in 1979-80. That was the year when foodgrains production, too, plunged by 22.2 m.t. The other two major recent drought years were 1986-87 and 1987-88, when the overall agriculture GDP declined by -0.6 per cent and -1.4 per cent, respectively.

But if the past is any indication, there can always be light at the end of the tunnel. The year following a bad agricultural year has invariably seen a turnaround. In 1980-81, not only did foodgrains production rebound from 109.70 m.t to 129.59 m.t, but even overall agriculture growth touched 14.4 per cent. The story was even better in 1988-89 — a jump in grain output from 140.35 m.t to 169.92 m.t.and a farm GDP growth of 16.8 per cent.

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