• Investment World
• eWorld
• Catalyst
• Mentor
• Life
• Canvas
• Praxis
• Urban Pulse
• Brand Quest

Our Bureau

MUMBAI, Nov. 7

WITH a further reduction forecast for wheat production in 2002-03, global supplies are seen tightening further. Crop reductions are seen in Australia, the US and the European Union.

Wheat prices have remained underpinned by the sharp reduction in premium grade supplies. Harvesting problems in Canada and another steep cut in Australia's crop forecast (10 million tonnes only) have prompted more flour millers to look for alternative origins, including cheaper lower-quality blending wheats.

Large surpluses in several other countries including CIS and southern Asia (mainly India) have helped to ensure adequate availability. Wheat is in demand by feed processors in Asia and Europe.

According to latest forecast made by the London-based International Grains Council (IGC), world wheat production in 2002-03 will be 562 mt (579 mt) and consumption (593 mt (587 mt). World stocks will shrink further by 30 mt to a low 135 mt, of which the five major exporters will hold 30 mt, the lowest for 7 years.

Economic growth is seen boosting food use in developing countries in Pacific Asia, while more wheat is available for animal feed in Europe and CIS, IGC noted. World wheat trade is projected at 100 mt.

Coarse Grains: World coarse grain output is forecast at 879 mt (895 mt) and consumption at 902 mt (908 mt), leading to further tightening of stocks to 132 mt (155 mt).

World trade is placed at 106 mt, of which maize trade will remain at a record 78 mt despite higher prices and strong competition from Black Sea feed wheat.

Rice: In 2002, world trade may expand to reach 26 mt (24.3 mt), according to IGC. Indonesia's imports will double to safeguard domestic needs, and purchases by the Philippines and Near East Asia will be higher. Competition from other exporters reduced Thailand's sales and exports by Vietnam are down, but India's are very large.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail
Comment on this article to BLFeedback@thehindu.co.in

Stories in this Section
Non-repayment of agricultural advances — Bankers looking for direction from Finance Minister

Copyright © 2002, The Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu Business Line