The Hindu Business Line : Fertiliser trade counts on rabi revival to offset setback

THE fertiliser industry is hopeful that the revival of the southwest monsoon, particularly pronounced since the beginning of this month, will offset the sharp decline in consumption recorded during the current kharif season.

According to the latest provisional information compiled by the Department of Fertilisers, urea sales for the period from April 1-August 31 at 65.29 lakh tonnes (lt), were nearly 13 per cent lower than the 74.91 lt sold during the first five months of 2001-02. The corresponding decline amounted to 14.4 per cent for di-ammonium phosphate (from 18.51 lt to 15.84 lt) and 22.5 per cent for muriate of potash (from 7.01 lt to 5.43 lt).

``There has, no doubt, been a significant setback to fertiliser consumption during kharif 2002, largely on account of the disastrous first half monsoon performance, resulting in lower acreages and application of nutrients.

But with the revival in rainfall activity from the second week of August and more so during this month, we can hope for a reasonable growth in the coming rabi season,'' an official from the Fertiliser Association of India (FAI) said.

The official pointed out that the recent rains had led to an improvement in the overall soil moisture regime, which should induce farmers to plant more area in rabi 2002. In fact, the pattern of fertiliser use has undergone a distinct shift in recent years, with as much as 54 per cent of the country's total nutrient consumption of 175.39 lt during 2001-02 taking place in the rabi season. ``We won't be surprised if the proportion of rabi-to-kharif consumption goes up even further to 60:40 in the current fiscal,'' he added.

The official, however, admitted that the extent of area sown and fertiliser consumption in rabi 2002 would eventually depend on the North-East monsoon, especially the crucial winter rains during December-January.

``Moreover, even if the growth in rabi 2002 turns out to be higher than that of rabi 2001, the consumption for the fiscal as a whole would, at best, be the same as during 2001-02. This is because any increase this rabi will largely go towards offsetting the roughly 15 per cent decline recorded during the kharif season,'' he added.

Consumption of urea has tended to stagnate in the last couple of years, after rising steadily from 140.03 lt in 1991-92 to touch a high of 203.96 lt in 1998-99 (see Table).

In the case of DAP, the trend has been more complex, with consumption levels dropping till the mid-1990s (due to the unfavourable pricing policy, following sudden decontrol) and then going up markedly because of higher concessional rate availability.

DAP consumption, too, peaked in 1999-2000, after which it has registered a decline.

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