The Hindu Business Line : Kharif output may fall 20 million t

A 20-million tonne (mt) decline in kharif foodgrains output seems a distinct possibility this year, though it is unlikely to translate into any serious food security crisis, as used to be the case in the past.

Going by the latest official data on acreage trends (see Table), it looks as though the total area sown under kharif rice, coarse cereals and pulses this year would be in the region of 325 lakh hectares, 190 lakh hectares and 85 lakh hectares, respectively. These represent a shortfall of roughly 80 lakh hectares, 45 lakh hectares and 20 lakh hectares over their normal acreage levels of 406 lakh hectares, 232 lakh hectares and 103 lakh hectares, respectively.

Even assuming that the failure of the monsoons during the first half would not have had any impact on yields — which are taken at their average levels in the last 2-3 — the production decline would work out to around 15 mt for kharif rice, 4.5 mt for coarse cereals and 1-1.5 mt for pulses. In other words, the total decline would be in the 20 mt range, bringing down the country's kharif foodgrains output from last year's all-time high of 111.51 mt to around 91 mt, which is close to the 91.59 mt figure for 1991-92.

The most steep decline in foodgrain production took place in the drought year of 1965-66, when output plummetted to 72.35 mt from the previous year's 89.36 mt. It looks as though this year's fall will be even more, if not comparable. However, Agriculture Ministry officials say that things are much different now.

Firstly, they point out that even a 20 mt fall in kharif output can be compensated partially by higher production of wheat and other rabi foodgrains. The current revival in monsoons may help this process by contributing to an improvement in the soil moisture regime, thereby inducing higher rabi sowings. Therefore, the decline in the year's total foodgrains production may not be as high as 20 mt.

Secondly, a 15-20 mt decline in production was serious in the 1960s, when the country's total foodgrain output was in the 85-90 mt range. But today, a 20 mt fall would be on a much higher base of 205-210 mt, which makes the situation not so serious from the point of view of food security.

Thirdly, the country today has public foodgrain stocks of over 60 mt, accumulated from previous year's surplus produce.

All this would mean that the consumer would be relatively insulated from any drought-induced `supply shocks' this time round, which is markedly different from what used to be the case even 10-15 years ago.

It is only the farmer who will be at the receiving end now because a production shortfall — irrespective of the general `food security' scenario — will inevitably mean a loss of income for him. The fact that the middle class, particularly vocal consumers in urban centres, will not suffer on account of a sharp decline in foodgrain output is also possibly one reason why drought has not really become an `issue' this time.

``Over the last decade, our production of oilseeds and pulses have either fallen or stagnated. But since the comfortable foreign exchange reserves position has enabled their large-scale imports, the shortfall in domestic output has not affected the consumer. As a result, their stagnating production levels have not caused much concern to policymakers'', the officials pointed out.

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