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G. Parthasarathy

JUST A few hours after sunset on June 25, a patrol of the Baluch Regiment of the Pakistan army and the Frontier Corps approached a building full of al Qaeda terrorists in the South Waziristan district of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. The Pakistanis were operating on the basis of American intelligence inputs. American troops and helicopters were in the vicinity. A hail of bullets rained on the Pakistanis as they approached the building. Ten members of the Pakistani patrol, including two officers, were gunned down. Those responsible for the shooting were not hardcore Arab al Qaeda members, but their associates from Chechnya and elsewhere, who constituted part of Osama bin Laden's Islamic Army for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders. A few days later, an ammunition dump located in Spin Boldak, on the Afghanistan-Baluchistan border, containing huge caches of ammunitions and explosives and supplying pro-American forces in Afghanistan, came under a rocket attack. Dozens of pro-American militiamen were killed and huge amounts of arms and ammunition blown up.

THE INCIDENTS in South Waziristan and Spin Boldak establish the hollowness of American claims that their military operations in Afghanistan in the war against terrorism have been successful. The Taliban may have been dislodged and the al Qaeda and its Islamic associates dispersed, but they still remain a potent force with the bulk of their leaderships alive and kicking.

While the Taliban and the Islamic associates of al Qaeda from Chechnya, Sudan, Nigeria, the Philippines and elsewhere may be lurking in locations along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the arrest of al Qaeda leader Abu Zubaydah in Faisalabad and the attacks on western establishments and assets in Karachi, clearly establish that the al Qaeda is comfortably ensconced in the very heart of Pakistan. And Osama bin Laden and his supporters can be sure that there will be no dearth of allies for them within Pakistan, including people who had and even continue to have links with the ISI. Given their inability to prevent the Al Qaeda from escaping in places like Tora Bora and Gardez, the Americans now have the unenviable task of having to depend on the Pakistani President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, to deliver the goods, both along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and within Pakistan itself. For the first time, voices are being raised within America itself, about the ineptitude of the leadership of the American Central Command that oversees military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That the British have little inclination or stomach to stay on and fight in Afghanistan for any length of time should be evident from the manner in which they have moved to hand over command of the multilateral force in that country to Turkey.

These developments have come as a boon to the beleaguered and domestically isolated Gen Musharraf, who is being lauded by the Bush Administration as a visionary leader who will play ball with them and lead Pakistan on a journey to become a "modern Islamic state". They are also emboldening Gen Musharraf to impose his own version of democracy in his country, by effecting drastic amendments to the 1973 Constitution. Under the Constitutional Order being rammed down the throats of his countrymen, effective power will be wielded by Gen Musharraf and the army establishment. The elected Prime Minister would be a compliant puppet and Parliament reduced to a mere rubber stamp. The Constitutional Amendments Gen Musharrraf will now enact go far further in stifling the evolution of a healthy democratic system, than anything military dictators like Ayub Khan or Zia-ul-Haq attempted. And there is little doubt that the US and the Tony Blair Government will acquiesce in and even endorse whatever their favourite General does.

Knowing this, Gen Musharraf will extract his price, as the American war against terrorism proceeds. But at the same time, Gen Musharraf has to carry out a delicate balancing act by ensuring that Islamist elements in the armed forces, with whom he has had a long-term association, are not unduly concerned. He appears confident that for the present, the political parties opposed to him in the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy do not carry the clout to launch a popular movement against him, especially in the absence of Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mr Nawaz Sharif, who now stand disqualified from participation in the forthcoming elections.

New Delhi is naturally pleased that the deployment of armed forces and the use of coercive diplomacy have compelled the world community to force Gen Musharraf to agree to a "permanent end" to support for cross-border terrorism. But it would be naïve to assume that this has been achieved without paying a price. The Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, himself has acknowledged the role of a "facilitator" for Washington on the Kashmir issue. Having been in the US for nearly a month, one cannot help noting the sea change in the climate of India-US relations that has taken place after the nuclear tests of 1998. India is recognised here as a vibrant democracy, with immense economic potential and a natural partner for Washington in the war against terrorism. Pakistan is considered to be a problem child that has to be prevented from becoming troublesome. But we cannot avoid taking notice of reports from within the Washington Beltway, indicating that the Bush Administration has assured Gen Musharraf that it would focus more on finding ways to resolve the Kashmir issue. The US aim has been spelled out as one that would involve creative ways to encourage a dialogue between India and Pakistan that would ultimately lead to a "readjustment in the status of Kashmir". In these circumstances is it wise to talk about the division of J&K on communal lines?

The most important challenge that New Delhi immediately faces, is to organise free and fair elections, with credible political and people's participation in Jammu and Kashmir in October. With around 3000 Jihadis already infiltrated across the Line of Control, Gen Musharraf will spare no effort to ensure that the elections are seen to have failed to evoke public support in J&K. And there is going to be unprecedented international diplomatic and media attention focused on these elections.

If it is our assessment that the Jihadis in J&K are going to intimidate candidates and voters, we should not hesitate to forcefully apprise the international community of this. We have repeatedly been demanding the dismantling of the "infrastructure of terrorism" within Pakistan.

Apart from insisting on the closure of terrorist camps, and the disbanding of such terrorist outfits as the United Jihad Council, we should also make it clear to the world community that the ISI in its present form is a rogue organisation that is not accountable to anyone, that has links with the trade of narcotics, that spies on and destabilises democratically elected governments within Pakistan, and promotes separatist and terrorist activities across the world.

Gen Musharraf is said to have removed some ISI officials who botched up his efforts to rig his referendum and others who deal with Kashmir. But these are, at best, cosmetic efforts to mollify domestic and world opinion. Pakistan would have to disband the entire "infrastructure of terrorism" in the ISI that has endeavoured to "bleed" India over the past two decades, if we are to be persuaded that it has finally given up the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy. There should be no compromise on our demand that Pakistan should deport at least the Indian nationals in our list of 20 most wanted terrorists it is harbouring.

(The author is a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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