Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Thursday, May 16, 2002
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Thursday, May 16, 2002 |
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Agri-Biz & Commodities
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Agriculture El Nino global impact may be weak M.R. Subramani
CHENNAI, May 15 EL Nino, the unusual weather pattern caused by a rise in the Pacific Ocean surface temperature, is likely to evolve by the end of this year but its global impact might be considerably weaker than 1997-98. According to the Climate Prediction Centre of the US, the activities of various factors that contribute towards El Nino show "a slow evolution". This should bring relief to growers, especially, since the recurrence of El Nino has been threatening drought in Asia. A Salmon Smith Barney report last week said crops across Asia were at risk due to this. Apart from the Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, South-East Asia, the agency put India and southern China also in the watchlist. The report had said the crops that would be at risk in the Asia-Pacific region were: Corn - Indonesia, India; soyabeans - India; wheat - Australia, India; cotton - Australia, India; palm - Indonesia, Malaysia, southern China; coconut - Philippines, Indonesia; coffee - Vietnam, Indonesia, India; sugarcane - Australia, India, southern China, Indonesia, Brazil; rice - Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Southern China; cocoa - Brazil; tea - Southern China, Malaysia, Indonesia. However, Indian meteorologists have ruled out great danger from the phenomenon. One of the reasons is that the country is more dependent on south-west monsoon and, therefore, any impact is likely to be minimal. According the Climate Prediction Centre, though sea temperatures were up in April, there was little change or anomalies in the sub-sea temperature, considered vital for monitoring the El Nino pattern. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an important source of variability that can contribute to a more rapid evolution toward El Niño, had weakened compared to its activity towards 2001 end and there was no additional significant Kelvin wave activity, it said. El Nino delayed monsoon in 1997-98 in India and caused severe floods in Bangladesh. The 1997-98, El Nino was stated to have had the strongest effect in the last 100 years. While affecting the monsoon activity in the sub-continent, it resulted in drought and bush fires in Australia besides affecting South China. Indonesia, where forest fires broke out, was one of the worst hit. The fires choked the entire South-East Asia scanning from Malaysia to Singapore. However, India gained indirectly as rice exports picked up since countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia bought huge quantities in the global market to meet their demand.
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