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Tuesday, Mar 19, 2002

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Marginal loss

K. Premkumar

MONDAY'S trading witnessed restricted movement. During the close of the day's trading, bears rallied to gain marginally. The market sentiment reading continues to favour the bulls. In the normal course of trading on Tuesday, the prevailing sentiment is likely to continue. Bear domination is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading by terminating most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list.

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Nifty futures recommendation: March contract opened with a bull gap of four points but failed to make any further gains. Bears managed to gain from the day's trading. The intra-day movement in the March contract was around 12 points. It closed 7 points lower from Friday's close. Bulls failed to initiate the uptrend in the March contract. Bearish trigger level for the March contract is placed closer to its current level. Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to initiate the downtrend in the March contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 list in this segment underwent a change. BHEL gained entry with the exit of Reliance Petro. However, the ranking of the list remained intact. Satyam Computer continues to remain as the top traded counter followed by Digital and Reliance Industries.

Except for Tata Engg all the other uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. So, traders holding long positions will have to be cautious. For Tuesday, bears are likely to have opportunity in BHEL, Reliance Industries and State Bank. On the other hand, bulls are likely to have a lone opportunity in Infosys. Selling in BHEL is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. The counter is in the uptrend. Its exit and sell levels are placed quite closer to its last traded value. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing uptrend in the counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in the cash segment had a change. Aftek Infosys gained entry for the first time into the list with the exit of State Bank. Reliance Industries moved to the fifth position followed by Polaris Soft and Hindustan Petro. The exit level for the uptrend in State Bank is placed at Rs 230.95.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to be a threat to the following uptrend counters — Aftek Infosys, Digital, Hindustan Petro, Polaris Software, Satyam Computer and VisualSoft. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Hindustan Petro, Reliance Industries, Satyam Computer and Wipro. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Infosys. The best among them for Tuesday's trading is likely to be the selling in Wipro. The counter is in the sideways mode. Its bearish trigger level is placed closer to its last traded price. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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