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Neha Kaushik

NEW DELHI, Feb. 11

AS per the latest projections by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), colour television sets (CTVs) will drive growth in the consumer durables segment over the next five years.

The total demand for television sets per annum is expected to rise from 3.9 million units in 1998-99 to 8.5 million in 2006-07.

Further, all-India ownership of CTVs will see a rise of more than 200 per cent, from 20.8 million units (in 1998-99) to 69.1 million units (in 2006-07).

Interestingly, much of this increase will be as a result of demand from rural areas.

Ownership of television sets in rural areas is expected to rise by over 300 per cent, from 5.9 million units to 25.7 million units between 1998-99 and 2006-07. In fact, the year 2006-07 is expected to see the ownership of television sets in rural areas even surpassing that of sewing machines (expected to be at 11.8 million units) for the first time.

"Earlier, it was the norm in rural areas for a parent to gift a sewing machine to the daughter at her wedding. However, the trend is now changing,'' says Mr R.K. Shukla, Senior Statistician, NCAER.

Demand from urban areas too will be encouraging, with the expected ownership rising from 14.9 million units in 1998-99 to 43.5 million in 2006-07.

Meanwhile, in the refrigerator segment, much of the demand will be seen in the urban region.

According to NCAER, the penetration of refrigerators in urban areas is expected to rise from 335 per thousand households in 1998-99 to 717 per thousand households in 2006-07. In fact, ownership for refrigerators in urban areas is expected to rise from 16.4 million units in 1998-99 to 43.1 million units in 2006-07 (almost at par with CTVs).

In rural areas, ownership of refrigerators is expected to rise from 4.3 million units to nine million units during the same period.

Total demand, however, will see a rise from 3.1 million units per annum in 1998-99 to 5.1 million units in 2006-07.

Washing machines too will continue to remain more of an urban phenomenon.

Although total ownership of washing machines in 2006-07 is expected to be at 26.9 million units, only 2.8 million units will be in the rural region.

Total demand per annum of the item, however, will see a rise from 1.5 million units in 1998-99 to 3.4 million in 2006-07. ``The main reason behind demand for refrigerators and washing machines not increasing exponentially in rural areas lies in the infrastructural bottlenecks in the region, such as the lack of continuous electricity,'' says Mr Shukla.

Interestingly, demand for items such as sewing machines, which were much sought after earlier, has been decreasing rapidly. For example, the total demand for sewing machines is to grow from 0.8 million units to only 1.1 million units between 1998-99 and 2006-07.

In the urban region, penetration levels for sewing machines are showing a negative trend. According to NCAER, the penetration of sewing machines in urban areas is to decrease from 172 per thousand in 1998-99 to 152 per thousand in 2006-07.

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